Thoughts About Super Tuesday

 | February 7, 2008 8:41 AM

Super Tuesday

Wow, Super Tuesday was lots of fun. Here are some thoughts I have and predictions.

  1. Young people don’t vote. This election was supposed to bring out the indifferent young people but when I asked in an informal poll if you voted, everyone I asked said no. On the other hand old people vote like crazy. This is probably because 33% of the federal budget goes to old people through Social Security and Medicare.
  2. John McCain is going to win the Republican nomination. And I think he would be best served bringing in Mike Huckabee as his vice-presidential nominee because Mike appeals both to conservatives and evangelicals.
  3. Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination. What started off looking like a triumphant night for Hillary Clinton ended up swinging to Obama. Though Hillary won more delegates Barack won more states and more importantly states that Democrats traditionally don’t do well. Barack is incredibly popular with independents and the Democrats in power can see that Hillary won’t do well in a general election. Hillary also seems to be struggling recently with raising funds while the money pours in for Barack.
  4. Ron Paul is going to run as an independent candidate for President. The money is pouring in for Ron Paul but he’s not spending it. I think he realizes that he can run a strong national campaign with this money and that many people, including me, like him. If he does run it is seriously going to jeopardize the Republican’s chances of keeping the White House. If McCain is the Republican nominee then Ron Paul might take a sizable portion of the conservative vote.
  5. I like Dr. Dobson but his attacks on John McCain and his pronouncement that he won’t cast a vote if he is the Presidential nominee is immature.
  6. The media’s insistence on explaining voter’s decisions based on race or age or gender or faith is annoying and misleading. The numbers in my opinion do not show a clear trend and saying people vote based on these factors instead of more substantial factors such as issue or character is simple minded. What’s especially annoying is how they treat evangelicals as a monolith that votes for Huckabee when in fact their vote is quite split between the different candidates and many are moving towards the Democrats. According to Christianity Today:

    Evangelical Republicans divided their votes nearly evenly between the top three candidates, according to exit polls. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee collected 34 percent, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney earned 31 percent. McCain followed closely with 29 percent.

2 Responses to “Thoughts About Super Tuesday”

[…] eriposte wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptBarack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination. What started off looking like a triumphant night for Hillary Clinton ended up swinging to Obama. Though Hillary won more delegates Barack won more states and more importantly … Read the rest of this great post here Posted by […]

Mark R. wrote a comment on February 7, 2008

1. “On the other hand old people vote like crazy. This is probably because 33% of the federal budget goes to old people through Social Security and Medicare.”

No doubt. I’d say that the first causes the second actually. I was wondering yesterday what would happen if voting power were scaled according to age, locale, and ethnicity. This violates “one man, one vote” in favor of demographic. Obv politically impossible, but I wonder how our government would change.

Also, there are plenty of things like farm subsidies where small groups get benefits b/c they lobby hard, but the costs are spread out so widely that it’s not worth anyone else’s trouble to kill them. It’s one of the costs of democracy.

3. It would be cool w/ me if Obama got the nom. I read one libertarian’s opinion that Clinton might be better because she is so divisive. So we’d get a government in gridlock. Since you like Ron Paul (as I do, despite misgivings), this might be something to consider.

6. “The media’s insistence on explaining voter’s decisions based on race or age or gender or faith is annoying and misleading.”

I certainly see what you are saying about evangelical Republicans. But on the Dem side, blacks and young Dems favor Obama strongly, and women favor Hillary Clinton. (I don’t know what young white women do, maybe flip a coin.) I think that group identification plays a large part here, not just the issues.

I’m not saying that’s wrong, by the way. A natural factor is for people to vote for the candidate they like, the one with whom they’d have a beer. And if one of the candidates were an Ohio-born, Boston-educated, SoCal-living Korean-American engineer, he would get my vote. He’d probably be sexy too.

Care to comment?